Christensen’s vision of a wireless world of data is spot on in my opinion. The convergence of voice, data and video in one place, whether it be at the home computer or the smart-phone, will leave telco and cable providers rushing at each other in full battle mode. Both services will have to eventually carry the same services. Whether it be VOIP or transporting conversations as text messages, this convergence means that at last all means of communication can be on hand anywhere you go. With Apple’s iPhone we see the rudimentary beginnings of this convergence. If one were to add local WiFi capabilities to the iPhone as well as software akin to Skype, the telco’s would lose a lot of their relevance. Why go through the hurdles of long distance charges, area codes and country codes, when all you need is an AOL screen name that you can select and instantly chat, share video and text message for a relatively cheap price?
It is possible that telco’s will inhibit WiFi capability as well as the ability to use VOIP programs on a smart-phone in order to protect their existing networks. On the other hand, I don’t see it being too long until a smart 18 year old somewhere in the world unlocks these abilities in a phone or a Chinese company breaks this potential OPEC like stranglehold and releases a phone that can do it all. In the long run it may be better for the telco’s to admit that their network business may need to be cannibalized in order to expand into new VOIP spaces.
The only downside to convergence with the smart-phone at the center, is the physical limitations of the phone itself. Some things just can’t be done well on a tiny screen. Gaming, movies, word processing and design work come to mind as applications that are ill suited to the physical limitations of a smart-phone screen.
It will be interesting to look back ten years from now on our present day confusion. Perhaps a holographic projected screen will overcome the limitations of the current smart-phone?
Questions:
1. How will the smart-phone disrupt the laptop and pda markets?
2. How can WiFi be provided as a public utility? And if it is will it be regulated?
3. How long until hackers find vulnerabilities in our smart-phone systems and further compromise privacy and financial security? Will this dampen adoption?
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I agree that Christensen does a good job spotting the future growth of the convergence of voice, video and data into one mobile device. I personally look forward to the day when my phone functions much more like a very small laptop. I have a smart phone for work, but it is old, doesn’t function very well, doesn’t hold a charge for very long, and has an expensive data plan. It is exciting to think someday, hopefully not too far away, we could use smart phones via Wi-Fi and cut out the expensive phone plans from proprietary mobile phone companies.
I have already purchased many of these products separately (i.e. iPod, PDA, laptop, game consoles) and wonder what will happen to them as we move into the convergence model where one product t does it all. I also fear what will happen if I lose this one product that has everything. How will I be able to function if I lose this phone? What dangers will I face if it is stolen?